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Why is the US wheat Commercial Sales down this year?

 



The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates gives the first look at USDA’s supply and demand expectations for the newest marketing year since the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. This is the highlight of spring USDA reports as it incorporates farmer planting decisions from the March Prospective Plantings report and adapts supply estimates to reflect weekly planting progress reports. The run-up to this report has been dominated by concerns about global grain and oilseed supplies for this year and next, prompted by both growing demand and disruptions of Black Sea supplies due to the Russian war on Ukraine. This Market Intel dives into the updated estimates of the current 2021/22 marketing year crop and looks at what may be in store for the 2022/23 marketing year, which starts in September.

WHEAT

Wheat planted acres in 2022/2023 are estimated at 47.4 million acres, an increase of 1.5% from 2021/22’s 46.7 million acres. Yield is estimated to be 47 bushels per acre, which would generate wheat production of 1.729 billion bushels, a 5.0% increase from a poor 2021/2022 wheat crop, but would still be about 8.5% below the five-year average of 1.89 billion bushels.

Estimated wheat demand in 2021/22 is down 8.5% from 2020/21, and 2022/23 demand is expected to decline another 2.4%, to 1.885 billion bushels, largely as the result of reduced exports. Stocks at the end of 2022/23 are projected at 619 million bushels, down 5.5% from this year and down nearly 40% from the end of 2019/20. Feed use of wheat for 2021/22 is expected to decline by 20 million bushels in 2022/23 to 100 million bushels, while exports are anticipated to fall 30 million bushels to 775 bushels in 2022/23.

The resulting stocks-to-use ratio for wheat in 2022/23 is expected at 33%, its lowest level since 2014, while 2020/21 stocks-to-use sits at 34%.

Each month, U.S. Wheat Associates(USW) updates a graphic summary of USDA’s WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report. The report includes global wheat market factors, major country and regional export history, and U.S. wheat supply and demand summaries by class. The data may be used without permission, but attribution to USW and USDA is appreciated. USDA’s projections are subject to change throughout the year depending on weather and other developments.

Click here to see Supply and Demand Reports of November 2022

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